Polymarket Fights France's ANJ Ban as Scrutiny Mounts

What Happened

France's Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) moved against Polymarket earlier this month, ordering a geoblock that effectively bars the platform from operating for French users. Polymarket had already stopped accepting transactions from France in November 2024, but had continued to allow access via French IP addresses — a distinction the ANJ apparently considered insufficient. The company is now vowing to contest the ban in court, describing the regulator's action as "surprising."

Running in parallel, a separate line of scrutiny has opened around a wager of almost $9 million placed on Donald Trump to win the 2024 US election via Polymarket, reportedly linked to George Cottrell — a figure who has previously acted as a frontman for high-stakes betting syndicates. The source of funds behind that bet is now under increased examination.

Two Separate Pressures, One Compounding Effect

These aren't the same story, but they're hitting the same product category at the same time. Regulators are already skeptical of prediction markets as a grey-area product that sits awkwardly between financial derivatives and sports betting. A high-profile legal fight with a major EU regulator, combined with a funds-scrutiny story involving a nine-figure wager, gives cautious regulators more ammunition and gives fence-sitting B2B partners reason to wait.

Key pressure points emerging from both stories:

• Regulatory classification risk: France's ANJ is treating prediction market access as something it can ban unilaterally, regardless of partial compliance steps the platform had already taken.
• AML exposure: The scrutiny over the Trump wager source of funds signals that prediction market platforms will face the same know-your-customer and anti-money-laundering expectations as traditional sportsbooks — without always having the same compliance infrastructure in place.
• Reputational contagion: Even operators not directly involved will find that association with the vertical invites questions from their own regulators.

Why This Matters for Operators

For B2B operators considering prediction markets as a product extension — whether through white-label arrangements, data feeds, or direct integrations — the France situation is a concrete warning. Partial geo-restriction measures may not satisfy regulators who decide they want a full block, and the legal cost of challenging that position is real. The AML angle is arguably more significant: if prediction markets attract the kind of whale activity seen in the Cottrell case, compliance teams need to be resourced and prepared accordingly before launch, not after a regulator comes knocking.