Gibraltar Builds the World's First Prediction Market Licence Framework

What Happened

Gibraltar has carved out a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets — a first anywhere in the world. Rather than forcing prediction platforms into ill-fitting existing categories, the British Overseas Territory has created a standalone regime housed within its broader Gambling Act. Two platforms, ADI Predictstreet and Wire Markets, have already been licensed under it, with ADI Predictstreet holding a betting intermediary licence. Gibraltar's Minister Nigel Feetham confirmed the framework includes safeguards covering market manipulation and AML.

Why a Standalone Regime Matters

Prediction markets have been operating in a regulatory grey zone in most jurisdictions — too structured for informal forecasting platforms, too unlike traditional sports betting or casino products to fit neatly under existing gambling licences. Gibraltar's decision to treat them as a distinct product category is significant because it forces clarity on two questions the industry has been deferring: what compliance obligations actually apply, and who has the authority to grant permission to operate.

By codifying AML and market manipulation rules specifically for this vertical, Gibraltar signals that prediction markets carry unique integrity risks that generic gambling frameworks weren't built to address. That's an acknowledgement with real regulatory weight.

The B2B Compliance Pathway That Didn't Exist Before

For operators and platform providers eyeing the Prediction Market vertical, the immediate value here is precedent. Before this, there was no jurisdiction a B2B supplier could point to and say: here's what a licensed, compliant prediction market operation looks like. Now there is.

Key implications for the B2B supply chain:

• Licensing template: Gibraltar's framework gives compliance teams a concrete reference point for product classification and regulatory mapping in other jurisdictions.
• AML obligations: Dedicated AML requirements tailored to prediction markets will likely inform how KYC and transaction monitoring tools are scoped for this product type.
• Market manipulation rules: Platform providers building matching engines or liquidity infrastructure now have a regulatory standard to design against.
• First-mover licensing: The two platforms already licensed have a verifiable compliance record that others — and their investors — will want to replicate.

Operator Takeaway

Any operator or B2B provider that's been holding off on prediction markets because the regulatory picture was too murky now has a starting point. Gibraltar won't be the only jurisdiction to follow this path, but it's set the template. Teams scoping market entry or product development should be reviewing this framework now, not when a second regulator copies it.