Prediction Markets Hit 27% World Cup Share — and a Regulatory Wall

The numbers that spooked sportsbooks

H2 Gambling Capital's World Cup data, reported by iGaming Next, puts prediction markets at around 27% of US legal sports betting activity on the tournament. That's not a rounding error — it's a direct transfer of handle from traditional sportsbooks to a product category that operates outside most existing sports-betting frameworks. Underdog Sports, which laid off 20% of its staff earlier this year before acquiring a derivatives clearing platform, has now formally launched what it describes as a federally licensed prediction market exchange under CFTC oversight, according to Casino Beats. The US is starting to have an established regulatory lane.

Europe is building roadblocks

The picture looks completely different on the other side of the Atlantic. France's ANJ has ordered ISPs to block Polymarket on illegal gambling grounds, reportedly as part of a broader European joint initiative targeting prediction markets, per iGaming Business. In Ireland, the Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRAI) has confirmed that an unnamed prediction markets platform may face High Court proceedings, with CEO Anne Marie Caulfield speaking publicly on the matter. These aren't slow-moving consultations — they're enforcement actions.

B2B supply chains are already moving

ADI Predictstreet and FIRST.bet have announced a partnership specifically to roll out regulated prediction market infrastructure across Latin America, combining prediction market tech with an existing B2B sportsbook platform. That's a meaningful signal: B2B providers aren't waiting for regulatory clarity to mature before building distribution. Meanwhile, Betsson told iGaming Next it's watching the space but doesn't see the US event-contract model translating cleanly into its core markets — a pragmatic read given where European enforcement is heading.

What operators need to watch

• US: The CFTC route is real, but it's a derivatives framework, not a sportsbook licence. Technology and compliance stacks aren't interchangeable.
• Europe: Operators with exposure to French or Irish markets face reputational and legal risk if any prediction market product touches those users, even indirectly.
• LatAm: The ADI/FIRST.bet deal suggests LatAm is being positioned as the next regulated expansion corridor — worth tracking for B2B suppliers building roadmaps.
• Content supply: If prediction markets keep pulling US handle, sportsbook data and odds suppliers will need to decide whether to integrate or compete.