Netherlands GGR Drops 21% Online as Illegal Market Takes 41%

What the KSA Numbers Actually Show

The Dutch regulator Kansspelautoriteit published its market scan covering all of 2025, and the headline figures are blunt. The licensed gambling market fell to €4.1bn, with overall regulated revenue down 9%. Online is the sharper story: Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) from the regulated digital segment dropped 21% year-on-year. Two policy levers drove that: the mandatory monthly deposit limits introduced in 2024, and a gambling tax rate of 34.2%. Neither is going away.

The Illegal Market Problem Is Bigger Than Operators Want to Admit

The more uncomfortable figure is the channelisation rate. According to reporting from iGB, licensed operators captured only 59% of total market revenue in 2025 — meaning roughly four in every ten euros wagered online went to unlicensed platforms. What makes this harder to dismiss is a detail flagged in the same report: players on illegal sites were losing more on average than those on licensed platforms. That suggests the leakage isn't driven by recreational players chasing a slightly better bonus — it's driven by heavier gamblers who find the deposit-limit regime genuinely restrictive and are actively routing around it.

Two Pressures Compressing the Licensed Market From Both Sides

Operators in the regulated Dutch market are effectively caught between two drags running simultaneously:

• Regulatory cost: the 34.2% tax rate and mandatory deposit caps reduce both player activity and margin on the licensed side.
• Illegal competition: a 41% unlicensed revenue share means licensed operators aren't just paying more to operate — they're doing it in a market where a significant competitor block faces none of those costs.

SBC News noted the KSA also released data covering the first half of 2026, suggesting the authority is monitoring the adjustment closely, though the market hasn't yet stabilised.

Operator Takeaway

For operators planning Netherlands strategy, the 2025 data reframes the core question. It's not simply whether the market is profitable under current tax and deposit rules — it's whether those rules will ever channel enough volume back to licensed operators to make the economics work. A 59% channelisation rate two-plus years after regulated re-entry is low by any comparable market standard. Operators should model scenarios where that rate stays flat or deteriorates further, not just the upside case where enforcement tightens and illegal share falls. Until the KSA demonstrates it can meaningfully reduce unlicensed activity, the licensed market's revenue base is structurally smaller than the gross addressable figures imply.